Here's the short version: Yes, Jalen Hurts has a real case to be the biggest surprise on the Eagles in 2026 — but it could go either way.
Let me break down why the experts are split.
📈 The case for a positive surprise
The narrative around Hurts right now is as low as it's been in years. A.J. Brown is gone (traded to New England), he's on his 7th different offensive coordinator in 7 years, his FantasyPros rank has slipped to 55th overall, and there's even chatter about the Eagles being willing to move on if he stumbles (from the Jalen Hurts page).
But that's exactly what makes him a surprise candidate. New OC Sean Mannion brings a West Coast system (McVay/Shanahan tree) that emphasizes footwork, timing, and pre-snap reads — addressing Hurts' historical weakness against zone coverage. Hurts has praised Mannion's clarity and vision at OTAs, saying "He's come in and he's very clear, given good direction." His dual-threat upside remains elite, and without A.J. Brown, the target share gets distributed across a committee — which could actually smooth out his weekly floor in Mannion's system.
On Fantasy Football Today... (via The Fantasy Headliners) — "People just assume DeVonta Smith is going to be the only show in town... Philly fans expect this offense to be some crazy high-volume offense." []
📉 The case it could be a negative surprise
Flock Fantasy — "Jalen Hurts had the worst year of his NFL career this past year... I understand the cause for concern for a lot of people." []
There's real risk here. Mannion's wide-zone scheme is run-heavy (Saquon Barkley still there), rookie WR Makai Lemon is unlikely to be a 1:1 replacement for Brown, and the offensive line is aging — Hurts completed just 51.1% of passes under pressure last season with 5 INTs. And the job security threat is real: anonymous Eagles sources have blamed Hurts for last season's shortcomings, and reports say they'd pursue Lamar Jackson if Hurts stumbles.
Bottom line: Jalen Hurts has the highest variance on the Eagles roster. If the low ADP, new system, and bad 2025 all combine to create a bounce-back, he'll be the biggest surprise in Philly. If the 7th OC in 7 years finally breaks the camel's back... well, that'd be a surprise too, just not the fun kind.