A few things to clear up first since 2026 has seen some major changes:
- Kevin Stefanski is indeed the Falcons' new head coach — fired by the Browns and hired by Atlanta this offseason (from the Kevin Stefanski page).
- Kirk Cousins is no longer a Falcon — he was cut this offseason ($35M dead cap hit) and is now the bridge starter for the Las Vegas Raiders. The Atlanta QB battle is between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr.
Stefanski's plan for the QB competition:
Stefanski and OC Tommy Rees are running an even-rep rotation — both QBs rotate every period and nearly every drill during practice to ensure extensive looks at both (from the Michael Penix Jr. page).
However, Penix is still limited to individual and 7-on-7 drills as of late June — not yet cleared for 11-on-11 team work while recovering from his third ACL tear in eight years (his 2025 season ended prematurely). Meanwhile, Tua has taken the bulk of first-team snaps and has been building chemistry with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and rookie WR Zachariah Branch. Stefanski has been "gushing about Tua's accuracy" in early OTAs.
Where things stand: DraftKings odds favor Tua at 58% to start Week 1. NFL.com's Matt Okada predicts Tua starts Week 1 but Penix could take over by weeks 6-8 if Tua isn't producing. The timeline hinges on Penix getting fully cleared for 11-on-11 work in July training camp.
On Fantasy Points, they noted: "If you make a bet on Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix, especially in Best Ball, you're going to get a chance to hit in a major way because these guys are getting a chance to hit in a major way" — . Meanwhile, Establish The Run called it a "coin flip on a starter" in that ADP range — .