The short answer: Probably not. While his ADP might still hover around TE10, the wiki argues that's more about name recognition than actual projected production (from the Travis Kelce page).
Here's why the signs point down:
- Age 37, declining skills — He had 9 dropped passes in 2025, three turning into Patrick Mahomes INTs.
- Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL and won't be fully healthy to start the year.
- Target competition is real now — Kelce's TE3 finish in 2025 was inflated by injuries to Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Both are back healthy in 2026, and the Chiefs also added Kenneth Walker III and drafted Emmett Johnson, shifting toward a run-heavy approach.
- Expert consensus expects his worst fantasy season yet, and analysts label him a bust to avoid (from the 4 Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid (2026) article).
Ron Stewart summed it up on his channel: "He has been slowly but surely deteriorating... when Mahomes was healthy, Kelce was [tight end 8]" — and that was before the ACL recovery and the added target competition.
One bright spot: Eric Bieniemy's return as OC could help, since Kelce thrived in that system from 2018–2022. But given all the headwinds, I'd say he's outside the top-10 this year.