Yes, everything points toward Mahomes starting Week 1 — but the team is being cautious.
Here's the TL;DR from the wiki:
- Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December 2025 and had surgery that same month.
- By late May OTAs, he was already participating in 7-on-7 drills in a knee brace — just 5.5 months post-op, which is notably ahead of schedule (from the Patrick Mahomes II page).
- ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported Mahomes is rehabbing 6-7 hours a day in Kansas City and is entering the "cutting phase" — the big test for knee confidence. Week 1 is the goal and it's looking increasingly realistic (from the Patrick Mahomes page).
- By mid-June, he'd advanced to 7-on-7 work and was eyeing 11-on-11 reps. The Chiefs' Week 1 opponent is the Broncos on Sept. 14, and both player and team are leaning into that timeline.
- Andy Reid has refused to commit to a hard deadline, but GM Brett Veach said Mahomes is "way ahead of schedule" and the biggest challenge is "protecting him against himself."
What the experts say:
- Sal Vetri (June 2026): "We're starting to get reports that Patrick Mahomes is expected to participate in some of OTAs, and he's on track to return Week 1 and not be on the PUP list." —
- Flock Fantasy: Noted Mahomes is already running around at camp, which is surprising given he tore both his ACL and LCL in mid-December — a more severe injury than a standalone ACL tear. —
Bottom line: All signs are green. He'll almost certainly be under center Week 1, though the Chiefs may manage his preseason reps conservatively. His ADP has dipped slightly (down to ~92 overall) due to the uncertainty, which could make him a value if you're willing to bet on the recovery holding up.