Good — I have a solid picture now. Here's the answer:
It was a big problem last season, but heading into 2026, it looks more like a past concern than a current one.
Mayfield played through shoulder and oblique injuries in 2025, and the split is stark: in his first 10 games (mostly healthy), he threw 26 TDs with a 6.85 YPA — in the final 8 games post-injury, just 9 TDs with 6.5 YPA (from the Baker Mayfield page). That dragged down the entire Bucs passing game, especially Emeka Egbuka's second-half collapse.
The good news: Mayfield is fully healthy now, and the team has made structural changes to keep him upright. New OC Zac Robinson brings a scheme that thrived on 12-personnel and motion-based concepts in Atlanta, which should stabilize Mayfield's performance — especially in the red zone, where the Bucs had zero TE touchdowns until Week 15 last year. Robinson already got Mayfield throwing TD passes to both Cade Otton and rookie TE Bauer Sharp in minicamp.
On Fantasy Points, they pointed out that Mayfield was top 5 in catchable throw rate in 2024 before injuries wrecked his 2025 — suggesting the ability is still there when he's healthy. Matthew Berry has him at QB19 as a "solid value." The key risk is durability given his playstyle, but the scheme and health outlook are both pointing up.