Believe it or not, yes — Tua is the current frontrunner. He signed with Atlanta on a cheap $1.2M deal this offseason (from the Tua Tagovailoa page), and he's taken the bulk of first-team OTAs reps while Penix rehabs from his third ACL surgery. Betting odds have Tua at -125 to start Week 1 vs. Penix at -102.
That said, it's far from settled. HC Kevin Stefanski plans to give both QBs equal training camp reps, rotating by period and drill. Analysts like ESPN's Louis Riddick and NFL.com's Matt Okada both pick Tua to win the job initially, though Okada adds Penix could take over by Weeks 6-8 if Tua struggles (from the Michael Penix Jr. page).
Expert views are split too:
- The Fantasy Headliners called it "pretty close to a 50-50 guess" and think it won't be clear until preseason games.
- Establish The Run noted it's a coin flip no one wants to pick right now in May — a value opportunity in best ball if you grab both.
Bottom line: Tua's the favorite as of late spring, but if you're drafting today, you're betting on a competition that likely won't be resolved until August.