His snap share is expected to drop pretty meaningfully. After playing 88% of snaps with the Eagles in 2025, the Patriots' scheme — which ran Stefon Diggs on just 55% of snaps last year despite his efficiency — suggests Brown lands in a 55–65% range (from the A.J. Brown page).
Two things keep his fantasy value afloat despite the lower snap share:
- Target quality over quantity. The Patriots run a ton of under-center play-action, where Drake Maye was the league's best QB (86.8 QBR, 10.5 YPA). Brown's best work in Tennessee came on play-action crosses between the numbers (34% of his receiving output), a route that fell to just 13% in Philly's shotgun-heavy offense. So those fewer snaps should be more productive per snap.
- Contested-catch ability. Brown's 4.7% career CROE means he can do damage even on limited looks.
As Josh & Hayden put it on Underdog Fantasy Football: the fit with Mike Vrabel and the Patriots' system is what makes this move click — "." The bottom line: lower snap count, higher quality looks, with injury risk baked in at age 29.